In less than two years since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos assumed power, the alliance between his family and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte has fractured. Accusations of drug abuse, threats of division within the country, and rumors of a coup plot have shattered the apparent unity between the Marcos and Duterte clans, which banded together for the 2022 elections. Philippine politics, historically dominated by elite families, involves the perpetuation of power through various means such as favoritism, vote-buying, or even violence.
The country’s former dictator’s son and namesake, Marcos, clinched the presidency through a landslide victory fueled by an extensive social media misinformation campaign that glossed over his family’s controversial past. Sara Duterte, Marcos’s running mate and the daughter of the former president, played a crucial role in garnering support from Mindanao, her family’s stronghold. It was widely anticipated that the Marcos and Duterte factions would eventually clash as they consolidated their respective support bases and secured strategic positions in anticipation of the mid-term elections in 2025 and the presidential polls in 2028.
However, the rift occurred unexpectedly and dramatically. At a rally in Davao on January 28, Duterte accused Marcos of being a drug addict, while his son Sebastian suggested Marcos’s resignation. Marcos retaliated the following day, alleging Duterte’s prolonged use of the opioid fentanyl had affected his health. Neither party substantiated their claims of drug use.
The spat seemingly stemmed from Marcos’s backing of constitutional amendments, a move opposed by the Dutertes, who fear it could prolong Marcos’s stay in power. While Marcos expressed willingness to amend economic provisions to attract more foreign investment, critics cautioned it might pave the way for extending his presidency. Analysts speculated that Duterte’s concerns also stemmed from his daughter’s perceived marginalization by the administration and the potential ICC investigation into Duterte’s drug war, which resulted in thousands of deaths.
Tensions escalated when Duterte advocated for Mindanao’s secession, prompting local politicians to caution against sedition charges. Security officials moved swiftly to quash separatist sentiments, emphasizing the government’s resolve to maintain territorial integrity.
Amid rumors of a plot to oust Marcos, Armed Forces chief General Romeo Brawner rallied troops to uphold loyalty to the government. The strained relationship between the two families became evident early in Marcos’s tenure when Sara Duterte was denied her preferred position as defense secretary and instead tasked with the education portfolio. Marcos also aimed to mend relations with traditional ally Washington after Duterte’s pro-China stance strained ties.
Although Marcos hinted at the possibility of rejoining the ICC, he affirmed the government’s non-cooperation with any investigation. While Sara Duterte hinted at mistreatment by Duterte’s inner circle, she refrained from directly criticizing Marcos. Despite Duterte’s verbal assaults, Marcos affirmed his unchanged relationship with Sara and her retention as education secretary.
Another figure in the unfolding drama is Marcos’s cousin Martin Romualdez, the House Speaker, speculated to vie for the presidency in 2028, potentially against Sara Duterte. Romualdez incurred the Duterte’s ire by spearheading efforts to curtail special funds allocated to the vice president and the education department. Additionally, the House, where Marcos enjoys majority support, moved to revoke the license of a pro-Duterte broadcaster after accusations against Romualdez surfaced.
